|
Article
by: Bill Waite mailto:bwaite@aegistg.com
Whassup?
The topic of "The Economics of Modeling and Simulation" was
originally introduced in this newsletter in September 1999 (Vol. 2 Issue 1c).
Since then, several activities have occurred in context of an informal
collaborative initiative, leveraging existing constituencies and
institutional fora, which are auspicious for advancing our collective
appreciation of the subject. I'd like to report that progress to you here.
In the beginning...
In our original article, we indicated the dynamic state of evolution of the
modeling and simulation industry, and consequently of the simulation economic
market. We cited economic pressure in technical R&D, system development,
training and operations as an incentive for modeling and simulation to be
employed more pervasively; and we indicated that the increasing
cost-effectivenss of advancing simulation technologies was accelerating that
trend. With opportunity comes responsibility, however, and we noted that:
"The advent of more and more visible and expensive modeling and
simulation enterprises invites explicit consideration of cost and of value of
return-on-investment (ROI) in the narrowest terms and, more broadly, of the
economics of modeling and simulation as a market sector."
We acknowledged (or hypothesized) that our collective appreciation of the
economics of M&S is at best unsystematic (e.g. What are simulation's
scarce resources? What are all of its goods...its services? Who are M&S
buyers?...sellers? What can M&S goods be traded for?...at what rate?
Which agencies serve in the role of market-maker in the M&S economy? What
does simulation cost?...and what is it worth?). We cited plausible motivation
for an intelligent interest in the details of the economics of M&S
(namely, that what we know [and do] about the economics of simulation matters
- it influences how well we do the business of M&S!). And finally, we
indicated the elements of a program of activity whereby the topic may be
systematically and effectively explored (the 'Initiative on the Economics of
Modeling and Simulation').
"...and he jumped on his horse and rode madly off in all directions."
Since that original report, there have been several substantive transactions
intended to address the M&S economics topic, including a significant
recognition of the topic in context of SISO, which I feel are exciting and
which I'd like to report to you briefly.
Following the Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC'99) Track on
"The Economics of Modeling and Simulation" which I reported
last time and whose proceedings are available online, at
ftp://AEgisRC.com/pub/scsc99, several subsequent transactions have
contributed to the store of common appreciation of simulation
economics.
Significantly, a discussion session, postured as a Virtual Track, was
conducted at the Fall Simulation Interoperability Workshop (SIW),
administered by our own SISO on 15 October in Orlando. The agenda for
the Session on "The Economics of Modeling and Simulation" consisted
of: a briefing to introduce the topic and feedback on the SCSC '99 meeting
process and products, followed by open discussion on: 1) scope and necessity
of the topic, 2) attendees' special interests, 3) perceptions of
opportunities to 'make a difference', and 4) possible ACTIONS. Information on
proceedings is available from the SIW archive. Thirty individuals
participated actively in the meeting. That group resolved to recommend to the
SISO Executive Committee (EXECOM) that a Study Group be formally convened to
determine how the subject may systematically be addressed within SISO and in
cooperation with other interested agencies. (More about this below!)
In December '99, a pair of Sessions on the topic were conducted at the International
Test and Evaluation Association (ITEA) Simulation Meeting in Los Cruces
NM. The ITEA event explored particularly the economic implications of M&S
for the T&E community, including: the economic cost and benefit of
simulation to support physical testing, the joint economic benefit of
simulation and physical testing to evaluation, and the costs and benefits of
marginal substitution of simulation and physical testing. Proceedings of the
activity can be found at: www.itea.org.
Also in December 99, the the National Training Systems Association (NTSA)
graciously provided accommodations (on relatively short notice) for a
discussion meeting at the Interservice / Industry Training, Simulation and
Education Conference (I/ITSEC) www.iitsec.org in Orlando on simulation
economics. During that discussion, strategies for conducting concrete
investigation into simulation economics and capture of best-practices
guidance for simulation management in context of Simulation Based Acquisition
(SBA) were explored.
Getting down to business...
Particularly promising, I believe is the establishment of the "Study
Group on the Economics of Simulation" established within SISO and
initiated at the Spring '00 SIW. The Economics of Simulation Study
Group was formed in order to conduct a preliminary investigation on the
subject of the economics of modeling and simulation and to establish
recommendations for pursuit of the topic within the scope of the SISO, if
appropriate. In accordance with SISO processes, a Terms of Reference (TOR)
document defining the 12 month Study Group was ratified by unanimous consent
of the Executive Committee (EXCOM) of the SISO on 28 March. The first
official meeting of the Study Group was held as planned as a component of the
Spring 2000 Simulation Interoperability Workshop (SIW) on 29 March, and a
detailed account of materials presented at that meeting is included in the
SIW proceedings available at: www.sisostds.org.
During the meeting, Work Groups were established to pursue the following task
activities:
* Data Compilation - Survey and collect available data / information on the
economic cost and benefit of simulation and on the characteristics of the
simulation market and compile that information in the form of a reference
library, index, and bibliographic list. (POC: Dr. Steve Gordon
steve.gordon@afams.af.mil or Mr. Marc Erlandson merlands@msiac.dmso.mil )
* Lexicon - Prepare a lexicon as a dictionary-of-terms and commentary in
cooperation with on-going collaborative activity being initiated by SISO and
the Society for Computer Simulation. (POC: Mr. George Phillips
Phillips.george@navy.hq.mil )
* Market Model - Establish a descriptive simulation-market model including
structure, processes and practices, and algorithms. (POC Dr. Leigh Lunsford
llunsfor@colsa.com )
* Business Case - Establish a business case on the economics of
simulation-standards in the form of a use case relevant to SISO standards
products. . (POC: Mr. Dave Tarkowski dtarkows@mitre.org )
The establishment of the Study Group is significant insofar as it establishes
(within SISO) an authoritative institutional venue for the focused
exploration of the economics of simulation. It identifies concrete tasking
whereby interested individuals may pursue the topic. It admits to liberal
participation in the form of inventive contribution and peer review
(...please indicate your interest in participating in this activity be
communicating directly with the coordinators of the respective working
groups!). And, it holds the promise of the generation and delivery of
concrete and persistent products that will be useful to the whole simulation
community. We believe that this investigation will prove valuable to those of
us committed to the simulation industry in a variety of ways, and will
contribute to establishing the economic efficacy of simulation standards to
which SISO is committed.
...and then...and then ?!?!
One event 'at the horizon' will afford the opportunity to explore the topic
of simulation economics with a very diverse cross-section of the M&S
industry is the Track on Economics at the Summer Computer Simulation
Conference (SCSC 2000). Sponsored by the Society for Computer Simulation
(SCS) and co-sponsored by SISO, NTIS, and MORS, the Simulation Economics
Track at the SCSC 2000 in Vancouver BC on 16-20 July 2000 is planned to
provide an opportunity to come to closure on a year's worth of activity on
the topic and, simultaneously, to extend the interest-constituency to those
areas of M&S which have not been otherwise accessible. The theme of the
SCSC 2000 is "MAINSTREAM Simulation", denoting both 'mainstreaming
simulation' in its respective application domains, but also the 'mainstream
of simulation' regardless of application domain - that is what matters about
simulation which everyone who is a simulation can (needs to) care about.
Economics is certainly one such topic. Therefore, a special effort will be
made to solicit the participation of a wide variety of simulation-domain
professions in order to investigate most effectively the essential economics
of M&S. Information about participation is available at: http://www.scs.org/confernc/scsc00/scsc2000cfp.html.
Concurrent with this event, significantly, we will initialize a Technical
Chapter on the Economics of Simulation as a persistent forum within the SCS
for investigation of the topic and to initiate a program of activity in that
venue to gracefully and constructively complement the SISO Study Group
effort.
A successor Session on Simulation Economics is in planning for the ITEA
Simulation Meeting December 2000 meeting as well, for which a call for papers
is available at http://www.itea.org/.
Finally, we will, of course meet at the Fall SIW to pursue this topic.
Several papers on the topic of simulation economics have been submitted for
the meeting, and the Study Group progress will be addressed. Naturally, your
participation in this event is welcome, and you are invited to contact the
author to discuss your particular interests. For further information on the
Fall SIW, consult: http://www.sisostds.org/
So what?
What we have accomplished is to have 'raised consciousness' in a variety of
individual loci of the M&S industry of the significance of the economics
of modeling and simulation, of the shortfall of genuine understanding of
simulation markets and economic issues, and of the prospect of cooperating in
using accessible institutional administrative mechanisms to coordinate
investigation of the topic. We have begun to establish persistent
administrative venues for use in focusing and sharing attention / effort / information
on simulation economics. We have defined and begun execution of tasking which
will yield products of general interest and value. And we have established de
facto a program of action for a collaborative initiative to pursue the topic
to a satisfactory conclusion (consistent with the Alice' Restaurant strategy
of hav'in' ourselves a "movement")
What we have not done is to have turned the corner on establishing concrete
findings, let alone on establishing consensus on a shared perception of
simulation economics or generally accepted business practice guidance.
I suppose that "Rome wasn't built in a day" ...but I note that Rome
was built! In that spirit, I invite those of you interested in participating
in the SISO Study Group to contact the Working Group points-of-contact cited
above. Those interested in other facets of the Initiative on the Economics of
Modeling and Simulation contact the author at: 256.922.0802 or
BWaite@AEgisTG.com.
|